More than three-quarters of the 57 surf breaks examined in an international study were rated as high risk because of changes in water levels, shifting sand and human interventions along the coast. The research, published in the journal Climatic Change, links climate change and coastal management to threats to the future survival of these waves. According to the researchers, the consequences extend to local communities, their culture and economies that depend on surfing.
Nearly 200 people with specialist local knowledge took part in the assessment, examining breaks in 11 of the 13 World Surfing Reserves areas across eight countries. Those placed in the highest-risk category include Croyde beach in North Devon, Britain, Noosa in Australia and Oriente Salvaje in El Salvador. The same category includes reef breaks in Santa Cruz, California, such as Sewer Peak and Wind and Sea. The researchers estimate that thousands of other surf breaks worldwide face similar threats.
These waves depend on a particular combination of seabed shape, swell direction and tides. Dan Reineman, an associate professor at California State University Channel Islands and an author of the study, explains that the convergence of these factors creates unique and fragile oceanographic phenomena. Global warming raises sea levels and changes rainfall patterns, affecting sediment transport. These changes can disrupt the balance that allows a particular wave to form or eliminate the conditions that create it.
A key finding of the study is that coastlines that retain more of their natural character have a greater capacity to adapt. They can move inland and allow sediment to be redistributed as conditions change. By contrast, according to Reineman, structures such as seawalls, piers and groynes limit the resilience of beaches and their waves. Rising sea levels can therefore submerge some breaks, while at others coastal structures restrict the space available for the coastline to adapt.
The knowledge of people who regularly observe these waves is a key research tool. Trent Hodges, an author of the study and a senior programme manager at the Save the Waves Coalition, says the researchers directly recorded the changes local surfers are seeing. The organisation launched the World Surfing Reserves programme in 2009. As he points out, a change in a wave often means the beach is changing too, so these observations concern a coastal environment used by far more people than just surfers.
In North Devon, the economic importance of surfing extends beyond the summer tourist season. Adam Hall, a co-founder of the local World Surfing Reserve and one of the study participants, describes a coastline with different types of waves and breaks suited to different weather conditions. According to Hall, visitors who come for good swells in January, February and March support pubs, restaurants and car parks. This activity provides income during months when other tourist destinations see little business.
The dependence can be even greater in other coastal communities. Hodges says surfing brings in about $200 million a year in Santa Cruz, supporting businesses, hotels and accommodation. In eastern El Salvador, he says, the local economy depends almost entirely on surfing. The loss or deterioration of waves therefore also affects the economic foundations of areas that often have few other sources of income.
The researchers are calling on more local surfers to use the assessment tools they developed and work with authorities and other organisations to protect the waves. There are already examples of legal protection: Australia's Gold Coast has incorporated surf protection into planning legislation, while New Zealand recognises breaks of national significance. In Peru, the Ley de rompientes protects registered surf breaks. The study thus highlights the importance of decisions about coastlines alongside the pressures caused by climate change.
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